In 2023, China greenlit the construction of 114 gigawatts (GW) of coal power capacity, marking a 10% increase compared to the previous year. This surge raises concerns about China’s ability to meet its climate targets, as it remains the world’s leading emitter of carbon dioxide. Despite pledges to cap emissions by 2030, China’s recent approvals of numerous coal plants may hinder its progress. Nonetheless, the nation has also made strides in renewable energy, witnessing a record number of new wind and solar installations connected to its grid.
Following a wave of electricity shortages in 2021, China initiated a surge in coal power permitting, potentially impeding its transition to cleaner energy sources, as outlined in an analysis by the U.S. think tank Global Energy Monitor (GEM) and the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Within a span of just two years, China has sanctioned the construction of 218 GW of new coal power capacity, equivalent to the electricity needs of Brazil in its entirety.
Last year saw the commencement of construction on 70 GW of new coal plants, a notable increase from the previous year’s 54 GW. Additionally, 47 GW of coal capacity went into operation, marking a significant rise from the 28 GW brought online in 2022, according to the analysis.
‘Drastic action needed’
Meeting the 2025 carbon and energy intensity goals now demands “drastic action,” according to the analysis. Additionally, China faces challenges in achieving its target of increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix to 20% by 2025.
In a separate note published by Carbon Brief, Lauri Myllyvirta, the lead analyst at CREA, highlighted that China’s CO2 emissions surged by an estimated 5.2% in 2023, marking a 12% increase since 2020.
To achieve its goal of reducing carbon intensity by 18% from 2020 levels, China needs to reduce emissions by 4-6% before 2025, as emphasized by the report.
While China has committed to decreasing coal consumption between 2025 and 2030, developers are actively constructing new capacity before the 2025 deadline, as outlined in the GEM-CREA report.
The report noted that China’s overall power capacity meets current demand adequately. However, its inefficient grid fails to efficiently distribute electricity, particularly across provincial borders, thus prompting further construction of power plants.
